Essendon 2026 Season Preview: Strengths, Weaknesses and What the Numbers Say

With the AFL season just days away, Essendon enters 2026 in a fascinating position.

After a brutal 2025 season defined by injuries and inexperience, the Bombers now face a year that could either confirm the progress of their young list or expose how much work remains before they can challenge the competition’s best.

On the latest episode of Don The Stat, hosts Jonathan Walsh and Ian Hume broke down Essendon’s list, key statistics, tactical trends and expectations for the year ahead.

Here’s a detailed look at what Bombers fans should be watching in 2026.

A Difficult 2025 Leaves More Questions Than Answers

Few AFL seasons have tested Essendon’s depth quite like 2025.

Injuries forced the Bombers to debut 15 players, many of whom were thrust into senior football earlier than expected. The team ultimately finished 15th on the ladder, winning just six games and ending the year on a 13-game losing streak.

Perhaps most telling was who those wins came against.

All six victories were against teams that finished in the bottom half of the ladder, while Essendon struggled badly against stronger opposition. The Bombers lost to top-nine sides by an average margin of 58 points, highlighting the gap between where the club currently sits and the competition’s elite.

Because of those circumstances, assessing the team purely on last year’s statistics can be misleading. However, the numbers still reveal some important trends about where Essendon must improve.

Territory: The Metric That Collapsed in 2025

One of the most dramatic statistical shifts for Essendon came in the territory battle.

In 2024, the Bombers built their game around a high defensive press that generated repeat forward entries. That approach resulted in a +5 inside 50 differential, ranking fifth in the AFL.

A year later, that strength disappeared.

Essendon’s inside-50 differential fell by almost eight entries per game, leaving them ranked 15th in the league. Even when isolating the early part of the season before the injury crisis fully took hold, the numbers remained concerning.

In simple terms, Essendon spent far more time defending than attacking.

Winning the territory battle is one of the most consistent predictors of success in modern AFL. When teams regularly generate more forward entries than their opponents, they naturally create more scoring opportunities.

For the Bombers, regaining that advantage will be critical in 2026.

Intercepts: The Engine of Essendon’s Game Style

Closely linked to territory is Essendon’s intercept game.

In 2024, the Bombers were among the best teams in the competition at winning the ball back. They ranked third in the AFL for intercept differential, generating two more intercepts per game than their opponents.

But in 2025 that number swung dramatically the other way.

Essendon finished the season ranked 15th, conceding more intercepts than they generated.

Much of that drop came from the forward half of the ground. The Bombers recorded four fewer forward-half intercepts per game, reducing their ability to lock the ball inside attacking territory.

Encouragingly, the recent practice match against St Kilda offered some signs that the intercept game may be returning. If Essendon can re-establish the pressure and defensive structure that defined their 2024 system, their ability to control territory should improve significantly.

Centre Bounce Concerns Remain

Another area of concern is centre clearance performance.

Essendon went from a positive differential in 2024 to a negative one in 2025, meaning opponents were winning the ball from the middle more often.

Centre clearances are crucial because they provide immediate territory and scoring opportunities. Losing that contest consistently forces teams to defend from the outset.

The Saints practice match highlighted the issue again, with St Kilda dominating centre clearances and generating strong inside-50 numbers as a result.

While practice matches can exaggerate trends due to lower intensity and experimentation, Essendon will need improvement in this area if they want to compete consistently.

One Bright Spot: Ground Ball Improvement

Despite the challenges, one statistic offered genuine encouragement.

For years Essendon struggled badly when the ball hit the ground. In both 2023 and 2024 they ranked near the bottom of the AFL for ground ball differential.

In 2025, however, the Bombers improved significantly, finishing seventh in the competition.

That improvement suggests Essendon’s list strategy — drafting players who thrive in chaos and ground-level contests — is beginning to pay off.

Players such as Nate Caddy, El-Achkar and others recruited in recent seasons have been targeted specifically for their ability to win ground balls and operate in congested situations.

The challenge now is generating more contests in the first place. Essendon still conceded the most marks in the AFL last season, which limited the number of ground ball opportunities.

The Most Important Metric: Scores Against from Turnover

If there is one statistic that best explains Essendon’s struggles in recent years, it is scores conceded from turnover.

Over the past four seasons the Bombers have ranked:

• 16th

• 15th

• 14th

• 17th

in the AFL for this metric.

Last season they conceded 59.3 points per game from turnovers, well above the league average of around 46 points.

Turnovers are influenced by several factors, including:

• Ball movement quality

• Decision making

• Field positioning when possession is lost

• Defensive structure during transition

Improving this area requires progress across the entire system rather than a single tactical adjustment.

Encouragingly, Essendon has drafted several strong ball users in recent seasons. Including Zak Johnson and others, which could help reduce costly turnovers in defensive areas.

List Changes: Youth Movement Continues

Essendon’s list has undergone significant change over the past two seasons.

Nine players departed during the most recent off-season, including Sam Draper, Dyson Shiel and Todd Goldstein. Combined, those players accounted for roughly 17.5% of Essendon’s total game time in 2025.

However, many were either fringe selections or nearing the end of their careers. The club’s strategy has clearly shifted toward developing younger players.

Since the 2024 national draft alone, 15 players have been added to the list who had never previously been on an AFL list.

Including recruits from 2023, that means roughly 20 players on the list are in the early stages of their AFL careers. This youth injection creates both opportunity and risk.

On one hand, the Bombers now possess a promising core developing together. On the other, young teams often struggle with consistency.

Depth Questions Remain

Despite the optimism around Essendon’s youth, some areas of the list still appear vulnerable.

The ruck division is one example.

Nick Bryan is the likely first-choice ruck but has played just 23 AFL games and is returning from an ACL injury. Behind him, Lachie Blakiston and Vigo Visentini remain relatively inexperienced.

Defensive depth is another concern, particularly if injuries strike key players such as Ben McKay or Zach Reid.

The Bombers also face uncertainty in their small forward group. While exciting young players exist, the position lacks proven performers at AFL level.

SWOT Analysis: Where Essendon Stands Heading into 2026

To better understand the club’s outlook, it’s useful to examine Essendon through a SWOT framework.

Strengths

Essendon’s midfield depth is one of the list’s strongest features.

While the team may lack a true superstar, they possess a large group of capable midfielders who can rotate through the centre and maintain competitive output.

Another strength lies in the club’s internal alignment. The board, executive and football department appear unified, and the organisation has invested heavily in resources across analysis, development and high performance.

The resilience shown by the young playing group during the injury-ravaged 2025 season also suggests strong internal culture.

Weaknesses

The Bombers still lack proven elite match-winners.

Players capable of single-handedly turning games remain rare on the list, which becomes particularly problematic against top opposition.

Experience is another factor. Many of Essendon’s most promising players are still developing, and consistency at AFL level takes time.

Finally, turnover defence remains a structural weakness that must improve.

Opportunities

External expectations for Essendon are extremely low in 2026.

Many analysts have placed the Bombers near the bottom of the ladder in preseason predictions. While that reflects the club’s recent struggles, it may also reduce outside pressure and allow the team to focus on development.

The fixture could also provide opportunities. Essendon has double-ups against several teams expected to finish in the lower half of the ladder, creating chances to bank wins.

Threats

One ongoing storyline will be the media scrutiny surrounding captain Zach Merrett.

Speculation about his long-term future has persisted since the off-season and is likely to continue if the Bombers struggle early.

Constant media attention can become destabilising for clubs, particularly during rebuilding phases.

What Would Progress Look Like in 2026?

Rather than focusing solely on ladder position, the most important indicator of improvement will be how Essendon plays.

If the Bombers can:

• Reduce scores conceded from turnover

• Re-establish their intercept game

• Improve territory through forward pressure

• Develop their young core together

then the foundations for future success will be stronger.

The numbers suggest Essendon doesn’t need dramatic change to become competitive. Even modest improvements in key metrics could shift several close games.

Predictions for the Season Ahead

Looking ahead, there are several intriguing possibilities for Essendon in 2026.

The club’s recent draftees could feature heavily early in the season, with multiple young players pushing for debuts.

There is also potential for a more chaotic, ground-ball-focused game style as the coaching staff adapts to the strengths of the evolving list.

And while expectations remain modest, young teams can surprise when their development accelerates.

A Season That Could Define the Next Era

The 2026 season may not determine Essendon’s ultimate destination, but it will reveal whether the club’s rebuild is moving in the right direction.

After years of instability, the Bombers finally appear to have a coherent list strategy, a unified football department and a promising group of young players developing together.

Whether that translates into results remains to be seen.

But one thing is certain: the answers will start arriving when the Bombers run out for Round 1.

Listen to the full Don The Stat Essendon 2026 Season Preview podcast