Dare to Dream in 2026 or Brace for Disappointment?
- Ian Hume
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
The Case For and Against Essendon in 2026
TL;DR
The optimist’s view: The AFL’s new Wildcard finals system lowers the barrier to September, Essendon’s recent win totals already sit close to the new threshold, the 2026 draw should be friendlier, and a young list exposed during the 2025 injury crisis may now be better prepared. Small improvement could be enough.
The pessimist’s view: Essendon still hasn’t shown the ability to consistently beat top sides, struggles to dominate weaker teams, lacks elite match-winning talent, and remains one of the youngest and least experienced lists in the league. Structural issues suggest 2026 may still be a development year.
The verdict: 2026 is a genuine crossroads. Belief is no longer irrational but it remains unproven.
For Essendon supporters, optimism has become an act of rebellion. Two decades of false dawns have conditioned fans to expect collapse rather than progress, regardless of how promising a list, a coach, or a pre-season might look.
And yet, 2026 feels different. Not because Essendon has suddenly become a finished product, but because the environment around them has shifted. A new finals format, a young list entering its third year under Brad Scott, and a quieter, more methodical reset has placed the Bombers at a genuine crossroads.
Belief is no longer completely irrational. But it still carries the scars of history.
The Optimist’s Case
A Lower Finals Bar Changes Everything
The AFL, in their pathological desire to become more like American sports, has introduced a Wildcard Round for 2026, allowing the top 10 teams to qualify for finals. It fundamentally alters what constitutes success.
Since the introduction of Gather Round and the extra game, teams have required:
12 wins (2023)
13 wins (2024)
15 wins (2025)to finish inside the top eight — an average of 13.3 wins.
Under a top-10 system, those same seasons would have required approximately:
11 wins
12 wins
12 wins
an average of 11.67 wins.
That is a reduction of almost two wins to play finals football.
Debates about the merit of teams playing finals after winning barely half their games are beside the point. The reality is that the barrier has moved and that matters enormously for teams living in the “middle tier” of the competition.
Recent Performance Is Already Close Enough
The first two seasons of Brad Scott’s tenure coincided with this period, and Essendon won 11 games in both years.
On percentage alone, they would have narrowly missed a top-10 finish under the new system, but only just. The margin between Essendon and finals contention during that period was thin, not structural.
All it would take is incremental improvement, not a dramatic leap, to see Essendon feature in September under the 2026 format.
The 2025 Injury Context Matters
Essendon were trending at a similar level again in 2025 before the injury crisis took hold.
With more typical injury luck, it is reasonable to argue the Bombers could have converted several close losses, including games against Richmond, Carlton (first meeting), St Kilda and Sydney, while the opening Suns match was at least a genuine 50/50.
That alone places Essendon squarely on the edge of finals contention again.
From a recent performance perspective, it is not unreasonable to expect Essendon to be in the mix in 2026.
A Friendlier Draw Should Follow
In recent seasons, Essendon arguably outperformed their percentage, resulting in harsher draws that made sustained improvement difficult.
The 2025 ladder position more accurately reflected Essendon’s underlying performance, which should translate into a more favourable 2026 fixture.
Double-ups against sides such as North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Melbourne - all with plausible bottom-six cases, represents a materially different challenge compared to facing only one bottom-six side twice in 2025.
More winnable games means more opportunity to reach the new finals threshold.
Other Clubs May Be Vulnerable
Several teams that finished above Essendon in 2025 carry genuine downside risk:
Melbourne have lost two of their three best players and rely heavily on an ageing Max Gawn.
Collingwood appear dangerously close to an age cliff and have been increasingly injury-affected.
Port Adelaide sit in no-man’s land under a new coach, likely entering a longer-term reset.
Hawthorn have shed depth and could unravel quickly with one or two key injuries.
Carlton have lost an elite key forward.
St Kilda have invested heavily, but major list overhauls often take time to stabilise.
Essendon, by contrast, has largely retained its core, giving it a chance to move past teams heading in the opposite direction.
Youth Exposure and Cultural Shift
The 2025 injury crisis, while damaging in the short term, accelerated the development of younger players. This “crisitunity” exposed emerging talent to AFL football earlier than planned, which should improve consistency and resilience in 2026.
Increased competition for spots also removes complacency among senior players. a subtle but important cultural shift.
Recruitment strategy has evolved as well. Where previous administrations chased potential and quick fixes, the Brad Scott era has prioritised competitiveness, attitude and ball use. Drafting, trading and free agency have focused more clearly on list balance and role fulfilment.
Low-cost acquisitions such as Fiorini and Duursma address long-standing issues on the wing and should significantly improve Essendon’s transition game, an area that has hurt us for years.
Leadership Transition
The captaincy handover from Zach Merrett to Andrew McGrath could also prove meaningful.
Merrett led by example. McGrath has the potential to be more transformational, particularly in his communication with younger players. His leadership against St Kilda in 2025 offered a glimpse of how this style can lift on-field engagement and reduce lapses within games.
If McGrath can maintain focus and intensity across four quarters, Essendon’s close-loss problem may begin to resolve.
Taken together, it would not be surprising to see Essendon outperform most external predictions and push firmly into finals contention in 2026.
The Pessimist’s Case
To paraphrase Sir Alex Ferguson: “Lads, it’s Essendon.”
Two decades of disappointment suggest that optimism is less hope than habit-breaking delusion.
Even setting injuries aside, Essendon has not demonstrated at any point in the Brad Scott era, the level of performance required to comfortably qualify for finals, even under an expanded system.
Season 2025 was tracking similarly before injuries struck, and beyond natural improvement from young players, there is little clear evidence of a structural leap forward.
The Top-Side Problem
Successful seasons are built on wins against quality opposition.
Across three years under Brad Scott, Essendon has gone 4–18 against teams that finished in the top six. That is not a small sample anomaly — it is a pattern.
Teams that play finals almost always steal wins against elite opposition. Essendon simply hasn’t done so with any consistency for decades.
The Percentage Problem
Just as concerning is Essendon’s inability to dominate weaker sides.
Over the past three seasons:
Only two wins have come by margins greater than 40 points
There have been 18 losses by more than 40 points
Wins are often narrow, scrappy and unsustainable, while losses are frequently uncompetitive. This imbalance explains Essendon’s perennial percentage issues and why ladder positions often flatter reality.
Youth Cuts Both Ways
Essendon has the second youngest list and the third least experienced in the competition.
That is promising long-term but problematic short-term.
Young teams are inconsistent by nature, vulnerable to momentum swings and prone to lapses within games. Hardened opponents exploit this ruthlessly.
For 2026 specifically, youth remains more a risk than a weapon.
Structural List Holes Remain
Despite heavy investment in the draft, significant gaps persist.
With Draper departing, Essendon lacks a proven number-one ruck. The options are:
A player returning from an ACL with limited AFL output
A late-blooming WAFL journeyman repurposed from defence
Against the league’s elite rucks, this looms as a weekly disadvantage.
The forward line also lacks depth in high-quality small forwards, players who both apply pressure and hit the scoreboard. Most top teams have three. Essendon arguably has one and as good as Isaac Kako was in his debut season, he is only entering his second season and already demonstrated signs that his best footy could be played higher up the ground.
No Elite Match Winner
Perhaps the most damning issue is the absence of a genuine match winner.
Essendon does not have a player capable of single-handedly swinging games in the mould of Dustin Martin, Marcus Bontempelli or Patrick Dangerfield, or even a "Temu Dusty" like Jordan DeGoey.
Zach Merrett is elite, but not that type. Nic Martin might have been the closest candidate but he will not play in 2026.
For a list already light on top-end talent, that absence is enormous.
Conditioning Change Won’t Be Instant
The arrival of a new high-performance program has generated optimism, but history urges caution.
Pre-seasons always look good. Actual competition rarely cares.
Even at West Coast, where Inness helped resolve a severe injury crisis, meaningful improvement took time. The full benefits are unlikely to be realised until 2027, leaving 2026 still squarely in development territory.
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. Based on recent history, expecting Essendon to meaningfully outperform the past two decades remains a leap of faith.
Final Word
2026 is not a fantasy but it is not a guarantee.
Essendon sits at a genuine inflection point: close enough to believe, far enough away to doubt. Small improvements could be enough to play finals. Structural flaws could just as easily keep the Bombers anchored in the middle.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Essendon’s 2026 chances?
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