2026 Essendon AFL Fixture Analysis: What Three Seasons of Data Tell Us About Rest Advantage

With the release of the 2026 AFL Fixture, we now know Essendon’s opponents, our double-ups, and the scheduling details for the first 15 rounds.

This is also the time of year when discussion turns to “who has the easiest draw”, usually based on double-ups. But as history keeps proving, preseason assumptions rarely hold. Adelaide finishing 15th in 2024 made a double-up look favourable on paper, only for them to finish 1st in 2025. Port Adelaide went from 2nd in 2024 to 13th in 2025.

Form changes quickly.

What clubs tend to focus on far more internally is when games are played — specifically, how many days break each team gets, and whether that creates a real competitive advantage. Five- and six-day breaks are inevitable. What matters is whether one team consistently gets more recovery and preparation time than the other.

To understand the impact, we’ve analysed all matches with different break lengths across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons.

Why Days Between Games Matter in AFL Scheduling

A longer break intuitively feels advantageous: more recovery, more tactical preparation, less fatigue.

But does it actually affect results?

And how much does the difference in days matter?

Here’s what the last three seasons tell us.

Days-Break Analysis: 2025 Season (Excluding Finals)

The 2025 season saw a clear gap between the top nine teams and the rest. The Western Bulldogs finished 9th, one win outside the eight, and just two wins behind 4th. Sydney in 10th were three wins and 23% behind 8th.

In comparison, 2024 was far more even: Fremantle (10th) missed the eight by two points, and Melbourne in 14th were as close to 8th as Sydney were in 10th in 2025.

In 2025 there were 153 matches where teams had different breaks (including Byes).

• 75 wins by the team with the longer break

• 78 wins by the team with the shorter break

Win rate for the longer break: 49.0%

A longer break was not a universal advantage. but the size of the break mattered.

Break Difference Outcomes in 2025

• +1 day (83 matches): 43.4% win rate

• +2 days (25 matches): 44.0% win rate

• +3 days (22 matches): 63.6% win rate

• +4 days (2 matches): 0% win rate (lost both)

• +5 days (2 matches): 50%

• +6 days (3 matches): 66.7%

• +7–9 days (16 matches): 61.1%

The trend is clear: small break advantages didn’t help much, but 3+ days starts to matter. In a season where the gap between the best and the rest was large, the best teams found ways to win, even off shorter preps.

Essendon in 2025

Given the injury crisis across our list, it's difficult to take too much from Essendon-specific results.

• 12 games with a longer break → 4 wins

• 3 games with a shorter break → 0 wins

Days-Break Analysis: 2024 Season (Excluding Finals)

2024 produced a more intuitive pattern. There were 146 matches where teams had different break lengths:

• 76 wins to teams with the longer break

• 70 wins to those with the shorter

• Win rate: 52.1%

Break Difference Outcomes – 2024

• +1 day: 50.5% win rate

• +2 days: 60% (20 matches)

• +3 days: 41.7% (longer-break team only won 5 of 12)

• +5+ days (bye-influenced): 58.8% (12 wins from 17)

Overall, 2024 supports the general trend: the bigger the break difference, the bigger the advantage.

Essendon in 2024

Longer breaks helped marginally:

• Longer break: 42.9% win rate

• Shorter break: 37.5% win rate

Worth noting:

• Essendon had a longer break than Collingwood on Anzac Day, resulting in a draw.

• Before the bye, we had a 75% win rate when coming off a longer break.

• After the bye, that dropped to 0%.

A Quick Check: 2023 Results (Excluding Finals)

To confirm 2024 wasn’t an outlier, we also looked at 2023.

Break Difference Outcomes – 2023

• +1 day: 50.5% win rate

• +2 days: 50%

• +3 days: 62.5%

• +5 (or more) days: 30% (13 matches – an unusual result given other seasons)

Essendon in 2023

• Longer break: 50% win rate

• Shorter break: 30% win rate

The three-year picture is consistent:

Small break differences don’t matter much but there is a slight advantage. Big ones have a larger impact.

Essendon’s 2026 Fixture: A Rest Advantage Breakdown

Rounds 1–15 Overview

Round 1: Hawthorn (Opening Round advantage)

Like 2025 (though only due to Cyclone Alfred), we open the season against a team that has already played.

• In 2025, 3 of the 4 Opening Round teams won the following week.

• In 2024, 5 of the 8 won (2 came from matches with two Opening Round teams).

History suggests an edge to teams playing their second match against teams playing their first.

Round 2: Port Adelaide (Essendon +2 days)

A genuine early advantage.

Round 3: North Melbourne (both off 6 days)

We both travel interstate (Adelaide ↔ Perth). Break advantage neutral.

Round 4: Western Bulldogs (Essendon +8 days, Dogs off a bye)

The Bulldogs play Opening Round and have a bye in Round 3.

Round 5: Melbourne (both 6 days)

Neutral break into Gather Round.

Round 6: Gold Coast (both 7 days)

Neutral break despite consecutive travel.

Round 7: Collingwood (Pies +2 days)

We have 7 days - they get 9.

A mild disadvantage but we still get a full weeks break.

Round 8: Brisbane (Essendon +1 day)

Break advantage to us.

Round 9: GWS (Essendon +1 day)

Break advantage again.

Round 10: Fremantle (Freo +2 days)

We get 8 days; Freo get 10 coming off a Thursday match. But 8-days for us helps.

Round 11: Richmond (both 5 days)

Our only 5-day turnaround pre-bye. Neutral break.

Round 12: West Coast (Essendon +1 day)

We get 9 days off a short week. Handy for our young group. West Coast have 8.

Round 13: Carlton (Blues +2 days)

We return from Perth on 7 days; Carlton have 9 leading into the Kings Birthday Eve Clash.

Round 14: Melbourne (Essendon +1 day)

We get 6 days; Melbourne get 5 coming off Kings Birthday Monday against the Pies.

Essendon’s Fixture Summary (Rounds 1–15)

Break advantage profile:

• 5 matches where Essendon has more time to prepare

• 3 matches where Essendon has less time

• 6 matches with neutral breaks

• 4 matches with <7 days preparation (but 3 of those are neutral and one where we have an advantage)

Crucially:

• The three matches where we have less prep time are still off 7+ day breaks for Essendon

• Only one match (Round 11 vs Richmond) is off a 5-day break, and Richmond also has a 5-day break

If additional recovery time offers even a small edge and the three-year dataset strongly suggests it does, Essendon’s first 15 rounds of 2026 provide a quietly favourable platform.

Conclusion: What the Data Says About Essendon’s 2026 Fixture

Across 2023–2025, longer breaks have delivered a modest but real advantage, particularly when the gap is 3+ days.

Looking at Essendon’s 2026 fixture:

• We face more favourable than unfavourable break scenarios

• We avoid opponents coming off extreme break advantages (Bulldogs coming off a a bye excluded)

• Most short-turnaround games are neutral

• The only structural disadvantage is the Opening Round effect against Hawthorn

Taken together, the recovery windows in the first 15 rounds are a meaningful positive for Essendon, especially for a list still developing physically and aiming to stabilise performance across the season.