Archie Perkins Is No “Draft Bust” - Context Matters

Following Essendon's Round 21 loss to Sydney, a social media post from veteran footy journalist Rohan Connolly lit up Essendon Twitter. His claim? That Archie Perkins, based on his career to date, would be “one of the biggest draft busts ever.”

It’s a big call - and, in our view, a misplaced one.

Let’s be clear: Archie Perkins hasn’t hit his absolute ceiling yet. He’s capable of more, and we suspect he’d be the first to admit it. But calling him a “draft bust” ignores a mountain of context - about Archie, the role he’s been asked to play, the team around him, and the year he was drafted.

The Fan Messiah Problem

Essendon supporters have been stuck in a two-decade drought without finals success. That hunger can easily morph into what we’ll call Fan Messiah Syndrome — pinning all hopes on one or two players to carry the club to glory singlehandedly. When that doesn’t happen instantly, disappointment turns into finger-pointing.

Perkins, like Andrew McGrath before him, has copped his share of that. But Essendon’s issues haven’t been about one player not “going to the next level”. they’ve been about a system and culture that, until recently, hasn’t set players up to thrive. As even Connolly has previously said, Essendon has been a dysfunctional environment for much of the past 20 years.

Not every player is a Zach Merrett, able to rise above their surroundings purely on self-drive. Many, especially young talent, need a strong, well-built environment around them to flourish. That’s the reality of elite sport.

The Numbers Tell a Different Story

Perkins has been criticised for his disposal numbers. But let’s compare him to other forwards in the league. There’s a long list of small and medium forwards — Sam Switkowski, Rhylee West, Jamie Elliott, Josh Rachele, Will Hayward, Jack Higgins, Willie Rioli, Tyson Stengle, who average similar or fewer disposals in 2025. Many of them play in stronger, more consistent teams with better inside-50 supply.

This year, Perkins has worn the sub vest four times. Yet among players who’ve played 10+ games, only 34 average at least 13.5 disposals and 0.85 goals a game (as of Round 21, 2025) and just nine of those are from teams outside the top nine. Archie is one of them. That’s decent company.

He’s also been shuffled between deep forward, small forward, and high half-forward in a side that has struggled for both quantity and quality of entries. His output isn’t elite yet, but it’s far from “bust” territory.

The COVID Draft Factor

The 2020 Draft, when Essendon selected Perkins was unlike any other in modern history. Victorian under-18s footy was shut down due to COVID, leaving recruiters with minimal exposed form. Clubs were drafting blind.

Looking at the top 10 from that draft:

• Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – elite talent, off-field questions linger

• Riley Thilthorpe – tracking well

• Will Phillips – struggling for games at North

• Logan McDonald – solid, not spectacular

• Braeden Campbell – handy role player, stats below Perkins

• Denver Grainger-Barrass – delisted

• Elijah Hollands – on a second club, injury and off-field issues

• Nik Cox – serious injury battles

• Zach Reid – highly talented, can’t get on the park

• Archie Perkins

In that context, Perkins sits comfortably in the top half of his draft class for impact so far.

Outside the top 10, there are very few players Essendon realistically could have taken who’ve outperformed him. Max Holmes (pick 20) and perhaps Beau McCreery (rookie draft) being the notable ones. And McCreery? He’s played fewer games than Perkins this year, averaging fewer disposals and half the goals.

Perspective From Recent Draft History

If we zoom out further and look at the decade of top-10 picks before 2020, the list of genuine “busts” is long: Daniel Gorringe, Jimmy Toumpas, Paddy McCartin, Josh Schache, Aaron Francis, Fischer McAsey… the list goes on.

Against that backdrop, Perkins’ body of work, nearly 100 games, regular best-22 selection, and a proven ability to impact games, looks a long way from “one of the biggest busts ever.”

Where to From Here?

None of this is to say Perkins is the finished product. He needs to close the gap between his best and worst, find ways to influence games more consistently, and build his scoreboard impact. But he’s an explosive, burst-impact player who has performed respectably in a side still finding its identity.

In the right environment, he has the tools to be a very good player in a very good team. The “draft bust” label isn’t just wrong. it’s lazy.

Image: Essendon Football Club (essendonfc.com.au)