The Way-Too-Early Essendon 2026 List Speculation Guide

Who’s safe, who’s vulnerable, and what the contract picture really looks like heading into 2026.

The 2025 season may have only just finished, but list planning never stops. As we head towards 2026, Essendon faces another significant off-season of decisions, with 18 players coming out of contract, including 11 senior-listed Bombers and 7 rookies.

Under Brad Scott, Essendon has averaged around 10 list changes each year, a number shaped by retirements, trades, delistings and natural turnover. With that in mind, not every uncontracted player in this group will be on the list in 2027.

Below, we’ve taken an early look at where each player stands. It’s speculative, but based on form, role, list needs and history under this regime. Expect movement throughout the year, but this is how things stand right now.

Category 1: Sure Things

Expect deals early in the 2026 season.

Angus Clarke

Arguably the safest of all uncontracted Bombers. Clarke looked comfortable at AFL level whether playing on the wing or across half-back, and has flashed midfield potential. A contract extension early in 2026 feels inevitable.

Lewis Hayes

Coming off an ACL but has shown clear growth as a key defender. If he’s confident he can find opportunity behind McKay, Reid and Ridley, he re-signs. If not, rival interest could be the only factor pulling him away.

Jayden Nguyen

Impressed in his senior appearances and looks well placed to feature regularly depending on Andy McGrath’s role. As a Category B rookie, list pressure is minimal, making this a straightforward re-signing.

Category 2: Mostly Safe

Should get new deals, but not completely locked in.

Kayle Gerreyn

A long-term project tall with elite traits. Needs endurance work, but as long as he progresses and applies himself, he stays. Essendon won’t walk away from this investment quickly.

Zak Johnson

Already a fan favourite thanks to his kicking and leadership attributes, two areas Essendon has lacked. A big pre-season could elevate him into a meaningful senior role. Here only because late draft picks traditionally get shorter leashes.

Archie May

Another project tall forward with the potential to develop alongside Caddy. As a mid-season rookie and in a crowded rookie group, he must show clear steps forward but the tools are there.

Rhys Unwin

Showed glimpses of traits Essendon lacks, particularly in the forward half. Development is the key. With few long-term small forwards on the list, the opportunity is there but the strength of the 2026 small forward draft class creates pressure.

Category 3: Needs a Big Year

Decisions likely to come late in the season.

Archer Day-Wicks

Showed promise in 2025 but faded late, likely due to first-year fatigue. Needs to prove that the form drop was temporary. As a rookie, job security is never high.

Archie Perkins

Has top-end talent and would thrive in a strong, settled side. But inconsistency and Essendon’s overall performance haven’t helped him. Could earn anywhere from a three-year deal to a one-year prove-it contract depending on 2026 output.

Elijah Tsatas

The pressure is real. The arrival of three top midfielders in the 2025 draft means he must earn his spot. Essendon has shown it’s willing to move on from early picks (see Hobbs). Needs a breakout year to lock in his future.

Jaxon Prior

Played every game in 2025 and was rewarded with an elevation to the senior list. Became a dependable half back defender and distributor. However, likely outside the best 22 if all fit and the drafting of Max Kondogiannis puts pressure on Prior to perform to maintain his spot on the list.

Lachlan Blakiston

Likely starts 2026 as the No. 1 ruck until Nick Bryan returns. If he proves capable at AFL level his flexibility (can play defense) makes him valuable. If he struggles, Essendon could look elsewhere in the annual ruck merry-go-round.

Nik Cox

A complete unknown due to repeated concussion panel reviews. If he can stay healthy, his talent alone earns him another contract. But his medical history means nothing is guaranteed. A genuinely emotional footy story if he can get through 2026 clean.

Saad El-Hawli

Has genuine speed, something the list lacks, but hasn’t been able to show it consistently at AFL level. Needs to improve defensive craft and consistency to avoid slipping behind others.

Liam McMahon / Tom Edwards

Grouped because they’re likely competing for a single spot. Edwards must return strongly from an ACL, while McMahon has to prove he contributes beyond scoreboard impact. Both surviving seems unlikely unless a senior forward departs.

Category 4: In Trouble

List spots under real threat.

Jade Gresham

Hot-and-cold form and a lack of reliable impact at half-forward have put him in a vulnerable position. With young mids potentially starting their careers across half-forward and players like Kako pushing up, his role is under pressure. Interest in Zac Bailey further complicates things. Trigger clauses may become relevant.

Matt Guelfi

Plays a role Essendon needs depth in, but availability is now the issue. Continued injuries put him at real risk, especially with several high-end small forwards projected in the 2026 draft class.

Final Word

There’s a long way to go in 2026, and these categories will shift as form, injuries and opportunity change. Some players will surprise; others will fall away. But as it stands, Essendon looks set for another significant round of list turnover and these are the early storylines worth watching.

Photo Credit: Essendon Football Club