Round 7 Check Point - Essendon 2026

Season 2026 at Essendon has not been for the faint hearted. Two really disappointing losses to start the season, followed by two games of mixed periods within the game, two games that then had a lot of good and then a really poor showing on Anzac Day.

If Essendon fans are anything, they're resilient. It's becoming increasingly difficult to maintain patience, but patience is unfortunately, what we need right now.

Essendon's 2026 List Profile

I'm not sharing anything ground breaking here, but Essendon came into the season with the 3rd Youngest and 3rd Least Experienced List in the competition. West Coast and Richmond are both marginally younger, marginally less experienced. The age profile has been a deliberate choice, with the club moving on Jake Stringer, Todd Goldstein, Nick Hind, Jayden Laverde, Jake Kelly, Dyson Heppell, among others, in recent years. Using those list spots to go to the Draft and invest in young players. This has been compounded further in 2026 by a lack of a recognised experienced ruckman, injuries to senior players. Nic Martin (0 Games), his replacement Will Setterfield (0 Games) and Mason Redman, Jordan Ridley and Brayden Fiorini (all 2 Games). And decisions to seemingly move past Matt Guelfi (2 Games), Archie Perkins and Jade Gresham (both 2 Games).

The Essendon side on Anzac Day was 4.5 years younger and almost 93 games on average, less experienced, on average, than Collingwood.

I've said this before, everyone wants to see the kids played, until they see the outcome of playing more kids.

The beneficiaries of all that though are -

• Saad El Hawli, who was probably our best player on Anzac Day. It's probably Jordan Ridley playing on Jamie Elliott if he was fit.

• Archie Roberts, who's stepped up in the absence of Mason Redman and taken his game to another level. Has he gone past Mason?

• Hussain El Achkar probably hasn't tasted AFL football if Jade Gresham was preferred

• Does Tom Edwards come back into the side so soon if Todd Goldstein was still on the list and Peter Wright wasn't needed in the ruck?

• Does Archer Day-Wicks set the MCG alight in the 1st Quarter on Anzac Day if Nic Martin was fit?

Essendon's Progress in 2026

If you believe the first two weeks of the season were an aberration, and I do, despite what happened on Saturday, then I do think it makes sense to look at the last 5 weeks to see what's improved on 2025.

Clearance Game

Essendon has had the fewest Ruck Contests in the competition over the past 5 weeks. With the ball, we have a tendency to keep it in motion through Kick & Mark, rather than locking into repeat stoppages. We were also ranked 18th for Ruck Contests in 2025, averaging 90.7 per game. That's dropped to 72.8 over the past 5 matches. It's worth noting that Ruck Contests are down across the competition, the AFL Average was 97.8 in 2025, that's down to 87.0 over the last 5 weeks. Whilst Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne are ranked in the bottom 5, it's a common trend in young teams (and , they all average in the low 80s. Collingwood buck the trend, averaging 75. All of this is to say, raw Hit Out and Clearance numbers don't tell the full story. We're ranked 17th for Hit Outs, 15th for Hit Out Win Percentage. But that is without a recognised Ruck.

17th for Clearance Wins (behind Collingwood), but 11th for Clearance Differential. Our games don't contain a lot of clearances, but we're showing improving in winning clearances over the last 5 weeks. Work still to do, a Differential of -1.8 Per Game, it was -1.2 in 2025. Most of this is happening at Centre Clearance, where the Ruck Rules certainly now favour having a dominant ruckman. We're -1.5 at Centre Clearance, +0.3 at Stoppage.

We're -4.6 Points a game in Clearance Scores (-4.0 of that from Centre Clearance). Which given our ruck challenge, is not exactly a surprise. Port, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast are all ranked behind us over the last 5 weeks. We -4.8 at Clearance Scores in 2025. But we knew the midfield needed work and development. It's no surprise. We put that on the radar in our List Types Analysis in August last year.

Turnover Game

The AFL Average for Points from Turnover was 46.6 in 2025. We conceded 59.3 Points a game last season, only Richmond was worse (60.0). The AFL Average has increased this season, that's the game now. More transition, more turnover, more turnover scores. The last 5 weeks the AFL Average has been 50.3 Points, we've improved to 56.0 Points, defending Turnover better than Western Bulldogs (injuries suck, hey), Carlton, Gold Coast, Richmond and West Coast.

The biggest turnaround for me, is our ability to score from Turnover and start to punish the opposition. We were ranked 17th for Turnover Score in 2025, with just 37.0 points per game. We've improved that to 48.2 points per game over the last 5 weeks. Ranked 12th.

Worth noting, we're not winning more Intercepts. We're down 0.7 a game on last year. We are doing a better job at scoring from them.

It was poor (worse than poor) against Collingwood. The 3 weeks prior to that we outscored our opponents on Turnover. There's some green shoots here.

Transition Game

In 2025 we were the worst team in the competition for moving the ball from Defensive 50 to Forward 50. And the worst team in the comp for converting a D50 Chain into a Score. 14th in the AFL for retaining the football when going Inside 50.

We were also the worst team in the competition at allowing teams to move the ball from D50 to F50 and worth at allowing teams to score from D50 Chains. 17th in the AFL for Opposition Ball Retention Inside 50.

The last 5 weeks we're 9th in the AFL, right on the AFL Average for moving the ball successfully from D50 to F50. 7th in the AFL for D50 Chains converting to Scores (better than the AFL Average). 3rd in the AFL for retaining the football when going Inside 50.

Huge steps forward in ball movement. But without the ball, we've still got a lot of work to do. We're 17th for teams transitioning to D50 to F50, converting those chains to scores and for 16th for opposition ball retention Inside 50. Disappointingly, Collingwood are 16th for allowing D50 to F50 transition and D50 Scoring Chains against, and we weren't able to capitalise against that.

Player Development

Long lamented by Essendon fans, I'm one of them. For me it might just be the most important measure in 2026, how many of our 2nd to 4th year players improve? And what exposure to our 1st year players will we get that suggests they can play a role in the future. This subjective, of course.

We've already debuted 5 1st year players, by Round 5. Jacob Farrow has a Rising Star nomination and looks beyond his years in terms of composure and class. The other four have certainly had moments that have demonstrated they have attributes that can help us move forward, but they need more exposure and that is what this season has become all about. Isaac Kako (29 games) and Nate Caddy (33 games) were behind so much of the good on Anzac Day. When we mounted a mini-challenge after half-time it was those two that were behind it. They've shown me that they will become match-winners, when we have a group that is capable of putting together consistent performances, in more matches for longer, these two are showing they have the ability to turn close games into Essendon wins.

Archie Roberts has played 34 games. He's 20 years old. Yep, 20 years old. He's a better football in 2026 than he was in 2025. He was our 11th most experienced player on Anzac Day. Collingwood's 11th most experienced player was Harry Perryman (161 games). They had another 7 players behind Perryman who have played 100+ games. Archer Day-Wicks (10 games) was the most impactful player on the ground in the 1st Quarter on Anzac Day. A huge grab, two goals from long range set shots. In our improved performances against Melbourne and Gold Coast his pressure and defensive actions played a key part in a challenging half-forward/wing role. Saad El-Hawli (13 games) was drafted because of his speed, dare and ability to penetrate by foot. He had question marks on his competitiveness, one-on-one work and defensive abilities. He played on the oppositions best forward on Anzac Day and besides a soft free kick, beat him. Whilst being brave enough to take the game on himself when he had the footy. He had a game high 9 intercepts along the way. Huge strides.

Elijah Tsatas (19 games) might not be the Pick 5 we hoped for, but he's worked hard on his game and looks to have taken a step forward towards being a reliable AFL midfielder. Archer May (10 games) and Tom Edwards (6 games) have shown they can operate in a team first forward line that values pressure and creating space for others.

All have a long way to go, all have demonstrated to me they have a lot to work with.

Summary

There's doom and gloom here if you want it. There's positivity here if you want it.

To me the reality is that we're doing exactly what we needed to do, hit the draft, play the kids, develop them and get them to 50-60 games as quickly as we can whilst embedding the way we want to play. The gap between our best and worst will be wild, that's what happens with young teams. But if you think the performance against Melbourne was better than what you saw in 2024-2025 (I do), and you believe in the young players we've got coming through (I do), then there are green shoots of hope everywhere. We're getting better with ball in hand, which is no surprise given that was a real focus across the last couple of drafts. We need to get better defensively, we would hope time is the remedy to that. It comes with experience, where concentration levels stay sharper for longer.

It's hard to ask Essendon fans for patience. An impossible ask, but impatience is the enemy of progress right now. I'm already looking forward to seeing how Caddy, Roberts, Robey, Farrow and co go against the reigning Premier.

Photo Source: Essendon Football Club