The Don The Stat 2026 AFL Draft Top 30

Another bloody draft ranking? Yes. But this one comes from watching full games and player-involvement vision, testing what actually makes a junior prospect likely to succeed at AFL level. This is my final Top 30 for the 2026 AFL National Draft, not a phantom draft, and not an attempt to predict the order in which clubs will call names.

With Essendon holding Pick 1 and further selections expected later in the draft, there is an obvious Bombers lens to parts of this discussion. But I have deliberately kept the talent rankings separate from my preferred Essendon targets. The best player on my board is not automatically the best selection for our list.

My scouting criteria: what I look for

The first thing I want to know is whether a player understands the game. Anticipation, positioning, awareness and decision-making under pressure matter enormously. Some players look quick because they run fast; others play quickly because they see the next action before anyone else. I place considerable value on the latter.

Clean hands are another major separator. At junior level a fumble might cost a moment; at AFL level it can close a scoring opportunity or expose a side on turnover. I look closely at one-touch collection, ground balls, balance through contact and whether a player can receive and release in traffic.

Kicking is not just a disposal-efficiency number. I examine ball drop, technique, range, vision, both sides of the body and execution under pressure. There is a difference between a player who takes a safe option and one who identifies and delivers the kick that opens the field. Equally, an attractive action means little if it breaks down at match speed.

Athleticism matters: acceleration, agility, endurance, repeat efforts and body control, but combine numbers are supporting evidence, not the verdict. I want to see those attributes change contests in actual games. I also assess body positioning, contested work, overhead ability, defensive accountability, pressure and what a player does after the first effort.

Ultimately, I balance two questions: how good could this player become, and how likely are their strengths to translate against AFL opponents? A dominant junior might rely on size or space that will disappear at the next level. A less spectacular prospect may possess anticipation, hands or football intelligence that becomes more valuable as the game speeds up. Every player also needs a believable AFL position and pathway. Versatility is valuable when it reflects genuine ability across roles; it is less useful when it disguises uncertainty about where someone can play.

My guiding question is simple: what does this player do exceptionally well, and will they still be able to do it at AFL level?

The complete Top 30

The players who missed out

A few names deserve an explanation before the countdown. Archie Elliott’s leading, marking and finishing, including 43 goals in 14 games put him close, but I have concerns about his ground-ball work, repeat pressure and the narrowness of his likely role. Essendon NGA prospect Blake Justice has excellent timing, vision and creative hands; I completed a full review, but his physical development and interrupted season leave him outside the 30.

Gabe Patterson has explosive scoring talent but needs more consistency and endurance. Darcy Szerszyn’s speed, leap and rebounding are attractive, although I could not place him above the defenders selected with sufficient confidence. Keenan Boi brings physicality, selfless pressure and quick decisions, but his Hawthorn NGA connection meant I prioritised other players for detailed viewing. Ethan Herbert moves well for a 200cm ruck-forward, yet I remain unconvinced by aspects of his ruck craft and wonder whether a relatively thin ruck crop is lifting his perceived value.

Jack Pickett is a separate case: he was not considered for these rankings because an ACL injury denied him exposed 2026 form. That is a limitation of my assessment, not a statement that he lacks Top 30 talent.

The countdown: 30–21

The back end of the list contains genuine AFL traits, but also questions about consistency, role or how much impact those traits will have at the next level.

#30 — Jackson Phillips

Dandenong Stingrays, Vic Country | 182cm | Wing / Half-back / Midfielder

Excellent dual-sided kicking. Smart attacking decisions. Agility and useful link play.. Fumbles, strength and periods of limited involvement. My AFL projection is outside wing or attacking half-back.

#29 — Albert MacGowan

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 187cm | Wing / Midfielder

Elite endurance (5:59 2km). Relentless running and good short kicking on either foot. Offers repeat outlets. Strength through contact, marking and defensive impact. Must become more damaging. My AFL projection is high-running wing.

#28 — George Dimer

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 173cm | Small Forward

Natural anticipation, agility, goal sense and positioning around ground balls. Less convincing top speed, floaty kicking, physical strength and repeat pressure. My AFL projection is specialist small forward.

#27 — Harrison Chapman

Eastern Ranges, Vic Metro | 190cm | Half-back / Midfielder

Smooth runner with vision, effective corridor angles and repeated involvement in chains. Similarities in movement to Max Kondogiannis. Not clean enough below knees. Body strength and one-on-one defending. My AFL projection is attacking half-back or outside link.

#26 — Marlon Neocleous

Gippsland Power, Vic Country | 168cm | Small Forward / Midfielder

Exceptional anticipation and one-touch hands. Front-and-square instincts, clever leads, surprising aerial ability and creative goal involvement. Limited height, uncertain top-end speed, floating kicks and repeat defensive pressure. My AFL projection is specialist small forward.

#25 — Kodah Edwards

South Adelaide, South Australia | 183cm | Midfielder / Forward

Strong contested instincts, clean hands, body positioning, forward craft and defensive intent. Kicking consistency and ability to separate at AFL pace. My AFL projection is contested midfield/forward rotation.

#24 — Jake Eime

Central District, South Australia | 182cm | Half-back / Wing

Line-breaking run and carry. Repeat chain involvements. Long kicking. 6:13 2km. High ball drop, physical strength and defensive reliability. My AFL projection is rebounding half-back or wing.

#23 — Koby LeCras

West Perth, Western Australia | 192cm | Forward / Wing

Long left-foot kicking, smart leading and ability to work up the ground. ACL interruption and limited recent vision. Athletic translation remains uncertain. My AFL projection is mobile third tall or high forward.

#22 — Harvie Cooke

Northern Knights, Vic Metro | 176cm | Midfielder / Forward

Morrish Medallist. Consistent competitor. Strong endurance (6:08) and agility (7.962). Useful ball winner and flexible role. Does he possess a genuinely elite AFL weapon beyond consistency? My AFL projection is midfield/forward rotation.

#21 — George Gale

Claremont, Western Australia | 190cm | Midfielder / Wing

Composed, clean below knees, controlled short and long kicking. Senior WAFL finals exposure. Strong running and all-thirds flexibility. Lacks obvious explosive speed or a truly elite standout trait.

My AFL projection is wing progressing into midfield.

The countdown: 20–11

This range includes several players I would seriously consider for Essendon. Their rankings reflect overall talent; the club-specific fit is an additional layer.

#20 — Khaled El Souki

Western Jets / Footscray VFL, Vic Metro | 175cm | Small Forward / Midfielder

Natural goal sense, left-foot execution, strong hips, agile positioning and pressure. 40 goals in 13 Talent League games and three on VFL debut. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football. The principal development questions are clear. Needs more influence outside forward 50. My AFL projection is specialist small forward with occasional midfield scope.

#19 — Billy Wigmore

Western Jets, Vic Metro | 189cm | Medium Defender / Interceptor

Outstanding flight reading, intercept marking, body work and one-on-one aerial craft. Dependable short ball use. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

Development questions: Tall forwards may outsize him, small forwards outpace him. Not a damaging kicker. My AFL projection is intercepting medium defender.

#18 — Clancy Snell

Gippsland Power, Vic Country | 196cm | Key Defender / Interceptor

Genuine intercept weapon. Early flight reading, reach, long spoils and useful ball use. Can attack the ball in the air and initiate transition.. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

The principal development questions are clear. Needs to prioritise opponent at times and develop one-on-one defensive reliability. My AFL projection is intercepting key defender.

#17 — Noah Williams

Geelong Falcons, Vic Country | 177cm | Midfielder / Forward

Explosive acceleration, traffic agility, rapid hands and defensive intent. Can turn inside possession into outside attack. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

The principal development questions are clear. Inconsistent kicking. Only four Talent League games leave a small evidence base.. My AFL projection is high-upside explosive midfielder.

#16 — Lochie Burrows

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 181cm | Defender / Wing / Forward / Midfielder

Competitive and versatile across lines. Good vision and ball use. Sound decisions, physical commitment and defensive willingness. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

Principal development questions: Is his best position clear, and is versatility masking a lack of a standout weapon?. My AFL projection is flexible defender with midfield mix.

#15 — Wil Malady

Gippsland Power, Vic Country | 190cm | Medium / Third Tall Forward

Explosive 2.900s 20m and 7.833 agility. Leap, leading patterns and high-end finishing. 18 goals in seven games. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

Areas for development: Limited contested marking, repeat defensive pressure and a potentially narrow role at 190cm. My AFL projection is athletic third tall forward.

#14 — Leo Steed

Swan Districts, Western Australia | 176cm | Midfielder / Forward

Burst acceleration, sharp agility, clean hands, aggressive defensive pressure and follow-up work. WAFL League exposure. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

Areas of concern: Rushed longer kicking and size-related midfield questions. My AFL projection is explosive midfielder with possible early forward rotation.

#13 — Tyson Bradley

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 195cm | Key Defender

Outstanding one-on-one craft, body positioning, aerial courage, composure and sound ball use. These are the qualities that earn him a place in the upper half of my board, but they need to survive the speed and physicality of AFL football.

My concerns: Reaction speed, change-of-direction adjustment and AFL athletic translation. My AFL projection is defensive key back.

#12 — Toby Krasna

Northern Knights, Vic Metro | 181cm | Midfielder

Ball-accumulation, repeat involvement, running capacity (6:10 2km) and useful speed. Credible midfield physical profile.

Areas of concern: Must show consistently damaging use and a high-impact AFL weapon. Interrupted exposure. My AFL projection is genuine AFL midfielder.

#11 — Caylen Murray

Brisbane Lions Academy, Queensland / Allies | 183cm | Half-back / Wing / Midfielder

Smooth attacking movement, good ball use and vision, 6:04 2km. Links through midfield and defence.

Areas of improvement: Defensive accountability.

My AFL projection is attacking half-back or wing.

The countdown: 10–1

At the top end, the differences become finer. I have tried to separate proven football craft from athletic projection.

#10 — Sam Gayfer

Northern Knights, Vic Metro | 194cm | Key / Third Tall Forward

Exceptional 114cm running vertical and 2.98s 20m. Aggressive leap, separation, strong leading and useful ground-level follow-up.

Field kicking and defensive recovery encourage.. For me, the appeal is not simply what the player can produce against junior opposition, but the potential for these traits to hold up in a much faster, more contested environment.

There are still meaningful development questions. Needs stronger marking body position, contested craft and set-shot consistency. Cannot rely only on athleticism. That matters when splitting players at this end of the draft, where the margins are small and the cost of overvaluing one exceptional attribute is high.

I project him as mobile key/third tall with a high ceiling. His position on my board reflects a judgement about ceiling and the likelihood of getting there.

#9 — Harry Van Hattum

Northern Knights, Vic Metro | 205cm | Ruck / Key Forward

Mature physical presence, ruck follow-up, ground-level work, strong kicking for size and forward target potential. For me, the appeal is not simply what the player can produce against junior opposition, but the potential for these traits to hold up in a much faster, more contested environment.

There are still meaningful development questions. Coverage, aerobic repeat efforts, aerial consistency and converting junior physical dominance into AFL ruck craft.

I project him as first-choice ruck who can rest forward.

#8 — Ethan Matthews

GWS Giants Academy, NSW / ACT, Allies | 186cm | Inside / Outside Midfielder

Excellent hands in congestion, rapid distribution, ball-winning and spreading into link up play.

Foot stress injury restricted exposure.

I project him as balanced midfielder.

#7 — Mitch Harris

Woodville-West Torrens, South Australia | 195cm | Key Defender / Interceptor

Strong one-on-one positioning, intercept judgement, composure and SANFL League finals evidence against mature bodies.

He has a high kicking ball drop and developing attacking impact.

I project him as reliable AFL key defender with intercept scope.

#6 — Gus Teixeira

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 181cm | Forward / Midfielder

Explosive pace, pressure, attacking intent and multiple routes to scoring. Can create momentum-shifting passages.

I have concern on his field and set-shot kicking mechanics, rushed execution and stoppage positioning.

I project him as dangerous forward-half player with midfield scope.

#5 — Ethan Drever

GWV Rebels, Vic Country | 188cm | Midfielder

2.905s 20m. Powerful straight-line burst, quick dual-handed release, clean hands and outstanding defensive intent. Hard worker, hits the scoreboard.

Query on his ability to get from nside-to-outside through agility, floaty kicks and the need for more consistent damage with possession.

I project him as explosive two-way centre-square midfielder.

#4 — Arki Butler

Sandringham Dragons, Vic Metro | 182cm | Midfielder / Forward

Elite early body positioning, awareness in congestion, low ball drop, smart decisions, overhead work and forward-half creativity.

There are still meaningful development questions. Can fade out of games. Injury interruptions and sustained midfield volume are questions. Inconsistency in involvement, not decision quality.

I project him as high-impact forward/midfielder.

#3 — Cody Walker

Bendigo Pioneers, Vic Country | 184cm | Midfielder / Forward

Powerful acceleration, overhead strength, tackle-breaking and high score involvement. Highest ceiling in the draft for mine.

Development areas: Ground-ball reliability, rushed disposal and set-shot technique.

I project him as powerful midfielder/forward.

#2 — Dougie Cochrane

Central District, South Australia | 195cm | Forward / Midfielder / Utility

Consensus leading talent. Height, aerial presence, athleticism, powerful kicking and positional flexibility.

Limited personal viewing due to his lack of footy this season.

I project him as high-impact tall utility/forward.

#1 — Heath Mellody

Claremont, Western Australia | 184cm | Midfielder / Half-back

Balance, anticipation, overhead ability, two-foot kicking, congestion hands, repeated involvement and all-round football intelligence. Larke Medal and WAFL League finals add translation evidence.

Not without question marks. Body craft against mature opponents, pressured execution and a less explosive athletic profile than some rivals.

I project him as high-quality midfielder with half-back flexibility. H

What this means for Essendon

Essendon’s first selection is a separate debate from what happens later. I have Heath Mellody at number one because I see an unusually persuasive combination of football intelligence, balance, clean hands, ball use and evidence of senior-level translation. Arki Butler and Ethan Drever are also excellent prospects, but they offer different risk–reward profiles: Butler’s positioning and decision-making are exceptional, while Drever brings explosive straight-line speed and defensive intent. My order is a talent judgement, not a claim that another selection would be a failure.

With further picks expected around 17, 21 and 25, there are six players who particularly interest me.

Toby Krasna has the midfield production and running foundation to become a reliable contributor.

Leo Steed brings acceleration, agility, clean hands and defensive pressure. Lochie Burrows offers competitiveness, sound decisions and real positional flexibility.

Noah Williams is a higher-risk option with exciting speed and midfield upside.

Clancy Snell has the height and intercepting ability to develop into a key defensive weapon.

Khaled El Souki offers genuine small-forward craft and pressure, although his Western Bulldogs NGA connection complicates any assumption about availability.

Marlon Neocleous is another player I would keep in the conversation. His anticipation and one-touch hands are outstanding, but at 168cm I need to be convinced his pace and repeated defensive efforts will meet the demands of the role. He is a more speculative option than my primary six.

I would not lock in a preferred three-player combination before seeing how the board falls. If Krasna and Steed are both available, that is a genuine decision; if the midfield options disappear, Snell’s defensive profile becomes more attractive. The principle is to maximise talent without ignoring the balance of roles Essendon will need in the years ahead.

Final thoughts

Rankings are snapshots of judgement, not promises. Players develop at different speeds, injuries change trajectories and clubs see things differently. I expect to be wrong about some of these calls.

The aim is to make the reasoning transparent: what I have seen, what I value, where I see risk and why I believe one player is more likely than another to succeed.

That is also what makes the draft so compelling. The obvious prospect is not always the best AFL player, and the most valuable football trait is not always the one that looks best in a highlight reel.

Listen to the accompanying Don The Stat podcast for the full discussion and Humey’s challenges to the rankings.